2014-05-25

Japanese SLR production numbers. Part 2: Minolta

And here comes chapter 2 of my production number assessment for Japanese 135 film SLR's. Today's camera producer is Chiyoda Kogaku, later renamed after their most famous brand Minolta. Their first SLR was theSR-2 and this assessment was actually the reason (or better: the trigger) that I bought this lovely camera. Compared to the Nikon evaluation this was more tricky and probably less accurate. Minolta had by far more single models on the market, they implemented technical improvements or other changes sometimes every year. In addition, during the early 70ies they started selling the same cameras under different names in the three main markets. Just one example: The XD in Japan was a XD11 in the US and a XD7 in Europe. I did just a few cross checks with my production number estimation method. My main source was this quite comprehensive french web site, also very helpful were the Rokkor Files as well as other resources like camera-wiki.org

The SR series was actually an amazing success for Minolta. With very modern and beautiful design and technology it set benchmarks for the rest of the industry. Minolta always focused rather on the average photographer than on the professionals like Nikon did in the beginning. That explains their higher sales in the early sixties. The most advanced model of this series, the SR-7 was the first SLR with a build in CdS-Meter, no TTL yet, though...

TTL metering only came wit the  SR-T series.  However, in contrast to the competition (e.g. Pentax Spotmatic) from the beginning at full aperture. The series comprises abot 10 different models, which have been sold undere different names on forreign markets, what makes it quite confusing. Technically, all the modells are very similar to the main type SR-T 101. That made it difficult to estimate accurate production numbers. Sometimes, you don#t even know, whether sources speak about just one modell oder the entire series.

Although a few professionals used the solid SR-T cameras, Minolta did not have a dedicated model for the pro market. That changed in 1973 with the introduction of the XM/XK. Not very successful, though, as production numbers stayed small. Minolta had a cooperation with Leitz in those days and actually developed its ambitious model XE, which became the basis for the Leica R3. The most interesting and successful camera for the semi-pro segment was the XD (7/11, see above) introducing a choice between aperture and shutter priority automation.
"Only" about 1.4 million cameras of the XE/XD series have been sold over a decade, during the seventies this was probably not enough to keep up with the competition. But Minolta understood, what the market was looking for. In 1977 they took their technology from XE and casted it into a more compact mass consumer camera. The XG series was born and sold about 3.4 million times in just 7 years. Technically all the XG models are very similar. 

With the XG series Minolta eventually realized where their strength are. They consequently discontinued the XM pro-series, took the basic design of the XG, added some technology and features from the XD and put all efforts into an "optimal" SLR: The X-700 was born and got a best and long seller. Minolta offered stripped down versions for lower prices targeting the mass consumer market quite successfully. In the early '90ies they transferred production to China. However, for me it is still unknown when and I decided to stop counting in 1993. 

The biggest change came when Minolta took it to the next level in 1985. They introduced Autofocus and the Minolta (Maxxum) 7000 AF. This brilliant coup put them into the market leader position for the next coming years. Read what happened finally in my post. However, this is not part of this assessment. Overall, from 1958 to 1993 Minolta sold about 14.8 million SLR's with the SR mount. As I said in the beginning, I'm not that confident with the numbers as I was with the Nikon stuff. It might be on the high side, but who knows. Some sources say, they were very successful in emerging markets like China and probably sold a lot there, too. Here are the details per model as a table:

Minolta …

also marketed as…

from

to

Numbers produced

SR-2 1958 1960       20,000
SR-3 1960 1962     180,000
SR-7 1962 1966     700,000
SR-1 1959 1967  1,160,000
SR-1s 1968 1971     130,000
SR-T 101 1966 1976  2,500,000
SR-T 100 1971 1975     130,000
SR-T 303 SR-T Super, SR-T 102  1973 1976     500,000
SR-T 101b SR-T 201, SR 101 1977 1981     200,000
SRT-303b SR-T 202, SR 505 1977 1980     200,000
SRT 100X SR-T 200 1977 1981     100,000
XM X-1, XK 1973 1981       51,000
XE-1 XE, XE-7 1974 1977     500,000
XE-5 1975 1977     100,000
XD5 1977 1984     150,000
XD7 XD, XD11 1979 1984     600,000
XG 1 1978 1982  1,500,000
XG-SE 1978 1978       20,000
XG 9 XG-S 1979 1981     250,000
XG-M X-70 1981 1983     500,000
X-7 XG-A 1980 1984     100,000
X-700 1981 1999  2,100,000
X-500 X-570 1983 1985     350,000
X-300 X-370,

continued

in China
1984 1993  1,800,000

2014-05-21

How to estimate SLR production numbers

Only a few camera producers have published production numbers of their SLR cameras, for the majority of the others we have to rely on other techniques to assess this interesting figure. One of the most often used methods is to simply look at the serial numbers of a certain model and to find the respective lowest and highest known numbers. The difference of the two is supposed to be the number of produced units. I guess most numbers you can find on the internet are based on this simple estimate. Unfortunately, these numbers get copied and pasted into new sites and the more they are repeated people tend to believe they are true. 
To really find out the highest (or lowest) serial number produced one have to look at many, many units. Fortunately, today there are e-bay sellers posting pictures of the cameras and in many cases you can find the serial numbers quite easily. In the following section I will present a slightly different and in my eyes more accurate method to estimate the production number of a certain camera model. 

The "Average Distance Analysis Method"

1) Get as many serial numbers as you can get (number = n). The method already works with a few, let's say n=5. However, the bigger the basis the more reliable and accurate the result. For the most time I stopped looking at about n=50, when I realized that the final result was not changing anymore.
2) Sort the numbers in ascending order and for the sake of visualization plot them using a spreadsheet programm like Excel. See above graph. A spreadsheet software is also very useful to do all the maths and automate the effort. 
3) Get the difference ("Distance" = D ) between all neighboring serial numbers and calculate their average (ØD).
4) Look for larger production breaks (red lines in above graph), number of these is B. I actually used this rule of thumb: If this particular distance D is more then three times larger than the average ØD I called it a break. However, you can easily see them in the graph.
5) Eliminate the break distances from the average calculation (important!)
6) The formula for the estimated production number P is...

P = ØD × (1 + n + B)

Here is my example for the Nikon FM: I got n=54 serial numbers from ebay. The lowest was 2117708, according to this web site they start wit 2100000. The highest was 3460001, the difference between both is 1.34 million. Plotting the graph one can easily see that production stopped at # 262xxxx and resumed at # 3xxxxxx. The gap was about 390,000 units. The average distance I calculated was ØD=18,315 units. Putting that into the formula results a total of 1,025,643 units.

This method works provided the following preconditions: 1) The serial numbers used are randomly picked, which is normally the case for e-bay auctions. 2) They are evenly distributed over the entire production period and they did not change the rules of numbering. For example, they could have started using odd numbers for a different model. Not very likely, though.  3) Production breaks or production in number blocks (and not using all blocks) is a relative common theme. This is not a big issue as this can be addressed by the method. However, the more breaks there are the more known serial numbers are needed to make it accurate.

The biggest advantage of this method over the highest/lowest method is that with ØD you get at least a very good estimate what number you might have to add to the highest known to get to the "real" last number made. You can verify your method with the low end. Take the lowest serial you've seen and substract ØD. What you get should be close to the round number one is expecting. In my case this is pretty good: 2117708 - 18315 is only 607 units off the reported start line.

I'd like to invite everybody to try it by yourself. I would offer to send you an Excel template sheet, where you just need to enter the serial numbers (send me an e-mail). Or just leave your comments below, what do you think about the method. I will keep using it for my further assessment of the historical Japanese SLR market.

2014-05-20

Japanese SLR production numbers. Part 1: Nikon

When I did my first posting about the 12.3 million 135 film SLR's ever produced in Germany, I kind of challenged myself to do the same assessment for the Japanese. I knew that this would take me longer, but after starting I realized how much more effort this actually needs. Anyway, this should be fun and I decided to do it step by step. Therefore this is just the first chapter and about the company which build my first, second and third SLR: Nikon. As Nikon is still around and one of the bigger players I needed to make a cut somewhere. I decided to focus on the traditionally styled SLR type, like I did for the German production. That means: No Autofocus, no build-in motor drive. Basically that excludes the modern style SLR, which materialized about 1985 with Minolta's (Maxxum) 7000AF or (to stay with Nikon) the F-501 and all the others.
And guess what: Nikon alone build (within the same time frame) about as many SLR's as the entire German camera industry: 12.2 million units. As you can see in above graph, this has been accomplished with just four basic design series: The professional F cameras, the early amateur Nikkormat's, the compact FM/FE series and the entry level consumer series of the EM. What I also decided not to count here are cameras under the Nikon brand, which haven't been produced by Nikon themselves: The Nikkorex series of the early sixties (produced by Mamiya) and the Nikon FM10/FE10 series, still being produced by Cosina.

Nikon's first (and for a few years only) SLR was the amazing F and it sold pretty well. The sources about the production numbers are quite consistent and with the help of Richard de Stoutz' Nikon F documentation it was quite easy to distribute the numbers over the production period. Same applies for its worthy successor F2. For the F3 it was a little more tricky and I made a few assumptions to let the production fade out even after the F4 was introduced to the market in 1988. See here for some info about production numbers of F4, F5 and the final F6. 

The sources on the Nikkormat series were not that consistent. The majority of the information I took from Nikkorman's site but also took some discussion in some forums and on this site into consideration. In addition I cross checked the numbers with own serial numbers investigations, which can be quite time consuming, but effective. Especially for the FTN I convinced myself that the production number is rather the lower 850,000 than the 1.2 millions, which is just the simple difference between the highest and lowest known serial number.
Most of the time of the entire assessment I spend on serial number investigations on the FM/FE series as there were almost no information available (at least not for all of them in a consistent manner). The result is quite impressive. In average the four major cameras of this series (FM, FM2(N), FE, FE2) sold more than one million each. The rarest model is actually the first FM2 with the X200 flash synchronization (besides the Titanium and Gold models). 

Last but not least come the consumer SLR cameras EM, FG and FG-20. Because of their focus and the relative low price it could be expected that they sold in quite high numbers. The EM had the longest run and consequently the highest production amount. All three paved the way into Nikon's future as a mass consumer SLR producer. This began with the F-301, which was basically a FG with a build-in motor drive and a modern (plastic) body. Autofocus (F-501) and more and more electronics made SLR photography as easy as it could get and compatible with a huge mass market. 

With a maturing market and tougher competition one can assume that they cannot keep their about 1 million/year rate from 1985 until the end of film SLR in 2006. But, how many remaining 135 film SLR's could they have made? Unfortunately, Nikon still doesn't publish production numbers on cameras. Luckily they celebrate milestones of Nikkor lens production from time to time. In May 2001 this was at 30 millions, in 2007 already 40 millions and the latest announcement was this January for 85 millions. From Canon who celebrate both, lens and body numbers, one can estimate a ratio of 1.43 lenses/body. This would mean about a total of 25 millions bodies in 2006, when Nikon finally ceased production of film SLR's.

However big this number is, one should not forget that Nikon is just one of the Japanese SLR producers. The others I will also cover here in a similar manner. Let me make a guess today: I think we talk about 60+ million Japanese 135 film SLR of the classic type (no AF, no build in motor drive) ever made. Let's see...

2014-05-12

Minolta SR-2

Minolta's erste Spiegelreflex hieß SR-2 und kam 1958 ein Jahr vor ihrer kleinen Schwester SR-1. Die Firma hieß damals noch Chiyoda Kogaku und war Japan's vierter Kamerahersteller, der eine Kleinbildspiegelreflex mit modernem Pentaprisma herausbrachte, ein Jahr vor der legendären Nikon F (Nr. 1: Miranda T, 1955; Nr. 2: Asahi Pentax, 1957; Nr. 3: Zunow Reflex, 1958). Verglichen mit den anderen war die Minolta SR-2 ein Design-Juwel, sowohl in ästhetischer als auch technischer Hinsicht. Zusammen mit der Pentax setzte sie Maßstäbe, an denen sich über 30 Jahre lang Designer von SLR's orientierten. So wie sie heute in meinem Regal steht, wirkt sie mit ihren min. 54 Jahren moderner als manche andere jüngere Kamera. Ihr proprietäres SR-Bajonett war damals eines der modernsten und wurde von Minolta abwärtskompatibel weiterentwickelt und erst mit Erscheinen der 7000AF fallengelassen.
Abgeschätzte Produktionszahlen für die Minolta SR-Serie. Quellen siehe Link-Liste unten.
Insgesamt ca. 2.1 Millionen, davon ca. 1.3 Millionen SR-1 Varianten. Ab 1966 sorgt die SRT-xxx Serie
für weiteres Wachstum bei Chiyoda Kogaku, die sich in Minolta Camera umbenennen.

Die SR-2 ist ziemlich selten, da sie in Zeiten rasantem technischem Fortschritts erschien und daher im 2-Jahresrythmus von ihren direkten Nachfolgern SR-3 und schließlich SR-7 abgelöst wurde. Mit der SR-3 wurde 1960 die Möglichkeit zur Kopplung eines externen Belichtungsmessers eingeführt. Die SR-7 war dann 1962 die allererste SLR mit einem CdS-Belichtungsmesser im Gehäuse, allerdings nicht TTL (siehe auch hier...). Die SR-Serie setzte die Basis für Minolta's Erfolg im Spiegelreflexmarkt. Ab 1966 kam dann mit der legendären SRT-101 TTL-Messung, die SR-7 wurde eingestellt und die Produktionszahlen kletterten noch ein bißchen weiter. Eine SR-1 Variante produzierte man noch bis 1971 als preiswertes Einstiegsmodell.
Für Sammler wie mich ist die SR-2 eine der interessantesten Minolta SLR's, weil sie verglichen mit den anderen (insbesondere der SRT-101) recht selten ist. Ich hatte totales Glück bei e-bay, mein Exemplar war nicht nur relativ günstig, sondern auch noch sehr gut erhalten. Äußerlichlich ist sie fast "mint", das Objektiv hat allerdings ein paar Gebrauchsspuren und auch der Verschluss arbeitet insbesondere bei den langen Zeiten ab 1/8 s nicht mehr korrekt. Ich werde sie bei Gelegenheit mal vorsichtig öffnen und einer Reinigung unterziehen.
   
Technisch gesehen war die SR-2 damals sehr modern, allerdings in keinem Aspekt die erste ihrer Art. Die Kombination der Features konnte sich allerdings sehen lassen: Rückschwingspiegel, (halb)automatische Springblende (Blende schließt sich mit Auslöser, öffnet sich aber erst wieder beim Filmaufzug), Leica-artiger Tuchschlitzverschluss bis 1/1000 s, nicht mitdrehendes Verschlusszeitenrad (Exakta...), helle Mikroprismen-Einstellscheibe mit Fresnellinse, und vieles andere, was wir heute für selbstverständlich nehmen (z.B. automatisches Reset des Bildzählwerks). Ein interessantes Feature für eine Kamera ohne Belichtungsmesser waren die LV (Lichtwert) Skalen sowohl an Blende als auch Verschlusszeit. Beide addiert ergaben den Lichtwert, den man am (externen) Belichtungsmesser ablesen konnte, pfiffig!

Datenblatt Mechanische KB-Spiegelreflexkamera
Objektiv Minolta SR Bajonett für Wechselobjektive, Standard: Auto Rokkor-PF 55mm f/1.8 (Doppel Gauss, 6 Linsen in 5 Gruppen)
Verschluss Horizontal ablaufender Tuchschlitzverschluss, 1s - 1/1000 s und B. Blitzsynchronisation ca. 1/50s (Extra Stufe "X" beim Einstellrad)
Belichtungsmessung keine
Fokussierung SLR, Mikroprismenmattscheibe mit Fresnellinse, nicht auswechelbar.
Sucher Spiegelreflex, Augenkorrekturlinsen als Zubehör.
Blitz Separate Synchronbuchsen für FP und X. Minimal 1/50s Synchronzeit. Aufsteck-Zubehörschuh als Zubehör verfügbar.
Filmtransport Schnellspannhebel, Bildzählwerk, Rückspulkurbel.
sonst. Ausstattung ISO-Gewinde für Drahtauslöser, Selbstauslöser (6-12 s), LV-Skalen für Blende und Zeit
Maße, Gewicht ca. 145/94/49 mm, 658g (920g mit 1.8/55)
Batterie keine
Baujahr(e) 1958-1960 (diese 1959 oder 1960),
selten, nur ca. 20.000 Exemplare
Kaufpreis, Wert heute US$ 249 (1958 mit 55mm f/1.8), heutiger Wert ca. >US$250
Links Broschüre, The Minolta SR System, Histoire SR (französisch), Camera-Wiki, The Rokkor Files, Cameraquest, Volker Fabian, Mr. Martin, Rokkor Blog, Pekri59